USD Conference Systems, The 2nd International Conference on Mathematics, its Applications, and Mathematics Education (ICMAME) 2024

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Spatial-temporal analysis of forest fires using a grid of sites and short periods in the GSTAR model
Nurainul Miftahul Huda, Yeftanus Antonio, Nurfitri Imro'ah

Last modified: 2024-08-05

Abstract


It is necessary to consider two crucial aspects: the transfer of the hot spot level from one area to the locations surrounding it, as well as the growth or decrease in the hot spot heat level over time. Because the shift and rise happen too quickly, it can affect the situation. Historical heat levels and the surrounding hot spot heat level establish the hot spot level at each site in a forest fire. Because the three components interact, the GSTAR model can analyze this case spatially and temporally. This research introduces a six-hour timeframe and a grid to track position shifts. This study will focus on West Kalimantan's Kubu Raya district. This study aims to determine the best model for describing Kubu Raya Regency fire intensity. A homogeneous weight matrix is employed to ascertain the essence of the correlation between locations. By utilizing a grid pattern and working with a shorter period, specifically every six hours, the outcomes of this study indicate that it is possible to accurately portray heat levels at forest fire hotspots in Kubu Raya Regency. This is accomplished by employing a grid pattern. Grid patterns were created using the GSTAR(1;1) model.


Keywords


grid; short time; uniform

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