Last modified: 2025-06-21
Abstract
The wind energy potential in Central Java offers promising opportunities for the development of utility-scale wind power projects. This study evaluates the technical feasibility using the System Advisor Model (SAM) across four selected locations. The analysis involves four different turbine capacities, ranging from 500 to 2000 kW, and total plant capacities of 30, 50, and 70 MW. Technical aspects examined include wind resource assessment, turbine layout design, wind speed distribution, and system losses. Wlahar Village in Brebes shows the highest potential both technical and economical perspective, with an average wind speed of 6.2 m/s and a capacity factor of 37%. In addition, from the financial point of view, two financing schemes are compared. One with 70% debt and another employing a more conservative structure with a minimum Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) of 1.25. Under the 70% debt scenario, the project yields a Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of 5.62 ¢/kWh, a Net Present Value (NPV) of USD 71.95 million, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 9.38%. However, the DSCR of only 0.62 indicates financial infeasibility, as the project can only cover 62% of its debt obligations. On the other hand, the conservative scheme with 38.75% debt proves to be more viable, resulting in an NPV of USD 61.31 million and an IRR of 7.05%. Although grid connection costs increase the capital expenditure by 1.46%, the impact remains moderate. Overall, the wind power project in Wlahar is technically sound and economically feasible under conservative financing and appropriate fiscal support.